The Prediction Scoreboard
Predictions are filed in writing before the reveal, with a timestamp and a confidence value, then scored against the chapters as they release. Nothing is deleted, nothing is re-dated. The refuted rows stay on the board — a track record you can't audit isn't a track record.
Each row shows Called as-of — the chapter the archive had read when the prediction was filed — and the Lead: how many chapters ahead of the reveal it was called. Click any prediction to see the seed chapters, the reasoning, and the payoff. A retro lead means it was noted after the fact — marked honestly, not counted as a forward call.
Forward calls that landed
Biggest belief swings
Confidence isn't set once — it gets revised on the record as chapters land. These are the largest single revisions in the ledger.
Calibration — forward calls
| Stated confidence | Resolved | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.4 | 1 | 0.00 |
| 0.4–0.6 | 6 | 0.67 |
| 0.6–0.8 | 30 | 0.68 |
| 0.8–1.0 | 13 | 0.85 |
Retro — noted after the fact
These predictions were filed with an as-of chapter at or later than the payoff — noted in hindsight. They are not counted toward the forward track record and are excluded from the forward hit rate above.
| Stated confidence | Resolved | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.4 | 0 | — |
| 0.4–0.6 | 1 | 0.50 |
| 0.6–0.8 | 2 | 0.50 |
| 0.8–1.0 | 3 | 1.00 |